The North Carolina Tar Heels lack the quality wins needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi moved UNC to his "First Four Out" in bracketology.

Despite North Carolina losing to a Cooper Flagg-less Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has the Tar Heels in the Field of 68 in his latest Bracketology update. Just barely -- as the last of the “Last Four In” while Lunardi has Texas among the “First Four Out.”

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has updated his bracketology projections just hours before the NCAA Tournament Selection Show.

According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Duke has the best chance to win the national title with a 28.5% forecast, Houston is next with 20.6% followed by Auburn at 13.6%. Duke has a 56% chance to make it to the Final Four compared to Auburn's 41.6% chance.

It seemed like Indiana was squarely on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble after a win over Ohio State to end the regular season, but Joe Lunardi's latest ESPN bracket projection has planted some doubt.

It's the most wonderful time of the year for ESPN's Joe Lunardi. That's because he's in the lab updating his bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. There were a handful of notable results on Friday that could impact this year's tournament.