An emerging trade war between the United States and China could drive U.S. crude exports lower in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic by reducing access to the Chinese market, according to analysts.

Analysts warn that uncertainty in the U.S.-China LNG trade could delay new capacity additions, despite the recent lifting of the LNG permitting pause

China's retaliatory tariffs on the United States may cause U.S. oil exports to decline in 2025 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, after growth plateaued last year. Exports of U.S. crude have surged more than 10 times since it lifted a 40-year federal ban on the export of domestic oil in 2015.

President Donald Trump is facing pressure from U.S. hospitals and generic drugmakers to exempt medical goods from his new tariffs on Chinese imports, as they join big pharma lobbyists who have said such trade barriers will cause shortages of medicines and higher prices in the United States.