Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on prior context. We use these probabilities to construct an entropy-based ...

Research Associate Kosali Simon, the Herman B. Wells Professor and Distinguished Professor at the Paul H. O'Neill School of Public and Environmental at Indiana University, will direct the NBER Program ...

We use high-frequency retail microdata to measure the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices. By matching daily prices from major U.S. retailers to product-level tariff rates and ...

We examine two approaches to improving urban school systems: changing who gets to go to existing schools (reallocation) and restructuring school portfolios through closures and reconstitution ...

Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for ...

Do firms respond similarly to corporate tax incentives across countries? We provide globally comparable estimates of the corporate elasticity of taxable income using administrative tax return data ...

Useful social science theories predict behavior across settings. However, applying a theory to make predictions in new settings is challenging: rarely can it be done without ad hoc modifications to ...

This paper shows that the pace of technology creation is a key driver of the skill premium. It develops a model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in learning new technologies. As ...

The feeling or impression that students get about enrolling in a particular college may be an important determinant of their college application decision. Combining institutional records on college ...

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, ...

We investigate how the U.S. dollar’s prominence in the denomination of international debt securities has evolved in recent decades, using a comprehensive global dataset with far more extensive ...

How do firms make decisions on investments in emerging technologies? We find that firms adjust AI/green investments in response to market reactions to announcements of such emerging-technology ...